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The call on this storyLocks in 19d 11h
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 -06 by 18% or more?
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Events
THE MODELAI FORECAST
RESOLVING NOWLIVE
RESOLVED NOWill monthly inflation stay flat (0.0%) or decrease in September?
LOCKS 12H 35MTaiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q3 gross profit margin <66%?China
RESOLVED NOWill fewer than 170 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 5-October 11?
LOCKS 20H 4MMilitary action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 15?Oil
RESOLVED YESShipping targeted in Hormuz on October 1, 2026?crowd 74%
LOCKS 21H 5MWTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $100 on October 15?Oil
RESOLVED NOWill a dozen eggs cost <$1.90 in September?
LOCKS 27H 4MWill Riyadh airport reopen (50+ departures) by October 15?Iran
RESOLVED NOWill Core CPI MoM be 0.0% or less in September?
RESOLVED NOWill monthly inflation stay flat (0.0%) or decrease in September?
LOCKS 12H 35MTaiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q3 gross profit margin <66%?China
RESOLVED NOWill fewer than 170 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 5-October 11?
LOCKS 20H 4MMilitary action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 15?Oil
RESOLVED YESShipping targeted in Hormuz on October 1, 2026?crowd 74%
LOCKS 21H 5MWTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $100 on October 15?Oil
RESOLVED NOWill a dozen eggs cost <$1.90 in September?
LOCKS 27H 4MWill Riyadh airport reopen (50+ departures) by October 15?Iran
RESOLVED NOWill Core CPI MoM be 0.0% or less in September?
