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Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 -17 by 30% or more?
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Events
THE MODELAI FORECAST
RESOLVING NOWLIVE
RESOLVED YESWill Trump endorse Likud in the 2026 Israeli Election?
LOCKS 3H 10MWill fewer than 170 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 12-October 18?Oil
RESOLVED NOWill Kazuma Nakatani win the 2026 Yokohama mayoral election?
LOCKS 3H 10MWill fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 12-October 18?Iran
RESOLVED NOWill Clémentine Autain be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential election?crowd 13%
LOCKS 21H 11MWTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $101 on October 19?Oil
RESOLVED YESWill Marianne Alto win the 2026 Victoria mayoral election?
LOCKS 23H 11MWill China GDP growth in Q3 2026 be less than 3.4%?China
RESOLVED NOWill Ken Sim win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election?
RESOLVED YESWill Trump endorse Likud in the 2026 Israeli Election?
LOCKS 3H 10MWill fewer than 170 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 12-October 18?Oil
RESOLVED NOWill Kazuma Nakatani win the 2026 Yokohama mayoral election?
LOCKS 3H 10MWill fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 12-October 18?Iran
RESOLVED NOWill Clémentine Autain be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential election?crowd 13%
LOCKS 21H 11MWTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $101 on October 19?Oil
RESOLVED YESWill Marianne Alto win the 2026 Victoria mayoral election?
LOCKS 23H 11MWill China GDP growth in Q3 2026 be less than 3.4%?China
RESOLVED NOWill Ken Sim win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election?
