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Will Marine Le Pen hit 38% in any poll before the first round of the presidential ?
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Events
THE MODELAI FORECAST
RESOLVING NOWLIVE
RESOLVED NOWill Benjamin Netanyahu receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?
LOCKS 4H 35MWill fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between November 2-November 8?Iran
RESOLVED NONational Guard deployed to election sites by November 7, 2026?
LOCKS 4H 35MWill UKMTO publish fewer than 4 notices between November 2-November 8?Iran
RESOLVED YESWill the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Kansas Attorney General election?
LOCKS 4H 35MWill fewer than 150 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between November 2-November 8?Oil
RESOLVED NOWill at least 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by October 31, 2026?
LOCKS 22H 36MWTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $95 on November 9?Oil
RESOLVED YESWill there be between 0 and 5 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on October 31?
RESOLVED NOWill Benjamin Netanyahu receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?
LOCKS 4H 35MWill fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between November 2-November 8?Iran
RESOLVED NONational Guard deployed to election sites by November 7, 2026?
LOCKS 4H 35MWill UKMTO publish fewer than 4 notices between November 2-November 8?Iran
RESOLVED YESWill the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Kansas Attorney General election?
LOCKS 4H 35MWill fewer than 150 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between November 2-November 8?Oil
RESOLVED NOWill at least 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by October 31, 2026?
LOCKS 22H 36MWTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $95 on November 9?Oil
RESOLVED YESWill there be between 0 and 5 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on October 31?
